Hormuz Reopens, but Sulfur Tightness Keeps Global Phosphate Trade Under Pressure
Ihumate | July 31, 2026
Table of Contents
- July data
- Why sulfur matters for phosphates
- Why reopening is not full recovery
- What to watch next
- Sources
July data
On July 3, S&P Global reported that new sulfur loadings from the Persian Gulf were still lagging after vessel traffic resumed through the Strait of Hormuz. Global seaborne dry bulk fertilizer shipments fell 19% year on year in May 2026 and were forecast to fall about 20% in the second quarter. Sulfur shipments were expected to fall 47%, nitrogen 24% and phosphates 20%.
Phosphate trade reflected both raw-material and logistics constraints. Global seaborne phosphate shipments fell 29% year on year to 4.2 million tonnes in May. The report recorded sharply lower sulfur loadings from the UAE and Qatar, a 47% decline in Morocco's phosphate shipments, and a 67% reduction in mainland China's phosphate exports.
Why sulfur matters for phosphates
Sulfur is a key feedstock for sulfuric acid, which is a major input in wet-process phosphoric acid and most phosphate fertilizers. A tight sulfur market can therefore constrain phosphate output, exports and delivered availability. Reopened shipping alone does not restore the fertilizer supply chain immediately.
FAO has warned that interruptions to fertilizer and energy transport can restrict farmers' access to inputs during critical application windows. Even delays of a few weeks can lead to lower fertilizer use and affect later harvests.
Why reopening is not full recovery
S&P Global said recent vessel movements mainly cleared previously stranded cargoes rather than signalling a full return of Gulf production and exports. Full normalization was not expected before late Q3 as oil- and gas-linked sulfur production restarted.
Canadian sulfur shipments rose 68% year on year in May, partly offsetting lost Gulf volumes, but not fully replacing them. The report expected fertilizer trade to recover gradually into late Q3 and early Q4; sulfur tightness and lagging Gulf loadings were still expected to keep the market volatile.
What to watch next
Buyers should track spot sulfur availability, phosphate operating rates and exports, vessel schedules and insurance costs, rather than relying only on the reopening of the strait. Growers should schedule base nutrition from soil tests and crop demand so that market disruption does not delay key application windows. Specialty fertilizers can improve nutrient-use efficiency, but they do not replace the base N, P and K required by crops.