FAO Warns of Fertilizer Supply Shock as Hormuz Disruptions and El Niño Risks Converge
Ihumate | September 30, 2026
Table of Contents
- FAO reports delayed trade and higher prices
- Why Hormuz matters to fertilizer supply
- Weather risks add pressure on agriculture
- What markets and growers should watch
- Information Sources
FAO reports delayed trade and higher prices
At the Rome Coalition for Fertilizer Access and Food Security ministerial meeting on September 24, FAO Director-General QU Dongyu said disruptions linked to the Middle East conflict had severely affected fertilizer markets ahead of the next planting season. The Gulf supplies 30%–35% of global urea, about 50% of sulfur exports and 20%–30% of ammonia. FAO reported that diammonium phosphate (DAP) prices had risen 26% and that 1.5–3 million tonnes of monthly fertilizer trade were delayed.
Why Hormuz matters to fertilizer supply
FAO said the Strait of Hormuz carries around 20%–30% of traded fertilizer, while tanker movements fell by more than 90%. Disruptions affect deliveries of urea and ammonia as well as upstream inputs such as natural gas and sulfur, influencing production costs, delivery schedules and regional availability of nitrogen and phosphate fertilizers.
Weather risks add pressure on agriculture
Weather uncertainty is adding to supply pressure. In its September 3 update, the World Meteorological Organization said there was a near-100% likelihood that El Niño would persist through February 2027 and could intensify, shifting rainfall and temperature patterns. FAO said El Niño, heat and drought are overlapping with geopolitical shocks and threatening production prospects in several major regions.
What markets and growers should watch
FAO called for open trade, fewer export restrictions that amplify price volatility, more transparent market information, diversified sourcing and coordinated logistics. Growers and buyers still need to plan around crop application windows, soil testing and local availability. For an example of a water-soluble compound fertilizer, see Ihumate NPK 30-10-10; fertilizer programs should still follow soil tests and crop requirements.